The Responsible Trader

THE RESPONSIBLE TRADER – TRADING LESSONS – THE DEGREES OF A TREND

In my previous post on this topic (Please refer to:   http://theresponsibletrader.com/responsible-trader-trading-lessons-degrees-trend/) I stated that in Responsible Trading we classify trends into degrees based on their pertinent time frames.

1. Major trend is a trend lasting more than six months. In our Stock Charts and Analysis this is also referred to as the Long Term Trend and we use the 200 SMA (Simple Moving Average as a reference Point)

2. Intermediate or secondary trend is a trend lasting for three weeks to three months. In our Stock Charts and Analysis this is also referred to as the Medium Term Trend and we use the 50 SMA as a reference Point.

3. Near term trend is a trend lasting for less than two or three weeks. In our Stock Charts and Analysis this is also referred to as Short Term Trend and we use the 20 SMA as our Reference Point.

Let us now review what I have posted in the past and compare it with what we have at present.

For the Major Trend from January to December 2019 since we do not see Higher Highs and Lower Lows we can conclude that the Trend is Sideways.

As of January 31, 2020 since the Index has broken the 7500 Support, we can say that the Major Trend is Down.

For the Intermediate Trend from October to December, although we can see that there is an Uptrend in October this is negated by a Downtrend in November so we can conclude that the Intermediate Trend for 2019 is Down

Continuing with our comparison, as of January 31, 2020 we can see that the 7500 Support has been broken and the Intermediate or Secondary Trend continues to go Down.

For the Near-term Trend from the middle of November up to present since we do not see any Higher Highs and Lower Lows we can conclude that the Trend is Sideways for 2019.

As of January 31, 2020, we see that the 7700 Support has been broken so the Trend has changed from Sideways to Down.

SCENARIO FOR 2020

To project probable scenarios for 2020, let us use the Swing High of 9078.37 and the Swing Low of 6790.58 in drawing our Fibonacci Gridlines to guide us in our Analysis.

1. After reversing from its Swing Low of 6790.58, the Index failed to break the 8204.43 Resistance (61.8% Fibo). This indicates that the rally was not very strong and not sustainable.

2. The Index has broken the 7664.52 Support (38.2% Fibo) and continued to break the 7330.50 Support (23.6% Fibo). Breakdown of these Horizontal Supports could indicate a failed rally and a movement back to the Swing Low of 6790.58.

3. As of January 31, 2020, the Index is below all our Standard Moving Averages including the 200 Simple Moving Average indicating that the Index is Bearish Short-term, Medium-term and Long-term.

Good luck on all your trades.

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In line with our VISION, A RESPONSIBLE TRADER IN EVERY FILIPINOS HOME, we aim to continue promoting financial literacy on the area of stock market trading and investing to our countrymen both here and abroad through the following:

1. We have successfully launched “Swing Trading with TRT – a Definitive Guide for Swing Trading the Philippine Stock Market” last September 2, 2019. This book is the second in our Responsible Trader Education Series.

You can download Chapter 1 and see the Table of Contents here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NZEABnQMiQ_zenEMs0lPFWweX4WBxBHg/view?usp=sharing

The first book, “The Responsible Trader – a Thinking Person’s Guide for Trading the Philippine Stock Market” provided all the basic knowledge that a trader needs to know in order to trade the Philippine Stock Market effectively and efficiently. The first book is about the basics. This second book is about the specifics.

2. The Book: “The Responsible Trader – a Thinking Person’s Guide for Trading the Philippine Stock Market” now earned the name “The Bible of Philippine Trading.” You can download Chapter 1, Section 1 of the book here: http://theresponsibletrader.com/the-responsible-trader-hope-for-trading-knowledge-test/. For those interested in the hard copy, please send email to: ninjatrader919@gmail.com Subject: The Responsible Trader – Hard Copy.

As requested by those abroad and those who want the book in digital form, we have produced an eBook version. For those interested please send email to: ninjatrader19@gmail.com Subject: The Responsible Trader – eBook Version.

The book can also be ordered online through our publisher, Central Book Supply. Just go to: http://central.com.ph/bookstoreplus then click Search – The Responsible Trader.

3. The Website: :http://www.theresponsibletrader.com where we publish our daily newsletter Top Ten Smart Money Moves, Stock Trading Lessons, and Inspirational Materials. (FREE)

4. The YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/theresponsibletrader – where you can learn the course “Master’s Certificate in Technical Analysis” which was simplified in an easily understood manner. You can download these videos and learn them at your own convenient time. (FREE)

5. My Slideshare: http://www.slideshare.net/TheResponsibleTrader – where you can view and download copy of the Powerpoint Presentation of my TRT-POV (The Responsible Trader’s Point of View) of the videos posted in our Youtube Channel. (FREE)

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DISCLAIMER There is a very high degree of risk involved in TRADING. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Nothing contained in this newsletter constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, PROMOTION or endorsement of any security. In accordance with the Responsible TRADER’s Creed: I will never tell and you take full responsibility for all your TRADING results