The Responsible Trader

Top Ten Smart Money Moves, starting January 2015, is the official trading newsletter of The Responsible Trader to promote his advocacy, Responsible Trading. This newsletter contains the previous day’s data from PSE, the Top Ten Foreign Buying and Selling, Top Ten in Total Traded Value, including Trading Notes based on the data of the previous day. This newsletter is given free to all the friends of The Responsible Trader and to members of the Facebook group and the other organizations where he is a member. For the previous issue where complete details about the newsletter was fully discussed, please refer to: Daily Top Tens October 17, 2014.

 

Trading Notes for Today –  (Based on November 11, 2016  Data)

Total Traded Value –  PhP  9.484 Billion – Medium

Advances Declines Ratio – (Ideal is 2:1 to be considered Bullish or Bearish) 152 Declines vs. 28 Advances = 5.43:1  Bearish

Total Foreign Buying – PhP 4.587  Billion

Total Foreign Selling – (PhP  7.060 Billion)

Net Foreign Buying (Selling) – (PhP  2.473  Billion) – 3rd day of Net Foreign Selling after a  day of  Net Foreign Buying

 

  

Data from the Philippine Stock Exchange

Screenshot courtesy of: www.pse.com.ph

PSE HEAT MAP

Screenshot courtesy of PSEGET

Top Ten Foreign Buying and Selling

Top Ten in Total Traded Value

From now on, I will just quote the related article from Business World so that we will have everything in one piece:

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Caution pervades market on Trump spillover fears

Posted on November 14, 2016

By Imee Charlee C. Delavin, Senior Reporter

THE LOCAL stock market looks set for another week of cautious trading, analysts said, as uncertainties over a Trump presidency continue to cloud sentiment and steer investors toward the sideline.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) could try to get back past 7,000 level, getting a possible lift from expectations of better third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) numbers and a fresh string of positive corporate earnings data.

“An overhang of the US elections, particularly as protests spread in major cities blurring an otherwise peaceful exercise and road to transition of power will continue to cloud over the markets entering this week,” Justino B. Calaycay, Jr., head of marketing and research at A&A Securities, Inc., said in a report.

“While general sentiments remain negative as a result of the last three weeks, and in most part, last week’s wild swings that on balance was negative, there are possible sources of optimism that could at the very least provide support to the market as it tests the 6,850-6,900 support range, or better yet, preserve year-to-date gains,” he added.

Analysts tipped a 6,800-7,300 range for the week.

The bellwether index plunged below the 7,000 line last week, shedding 206.78 points or 2.87% to end Friday at 6,975.09 as investors remained cautious on the impact on the Philippines of Donald J. Trump’s victory as US president and amid lingering concerns over an impending interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. This is the local barometer’s lowest level in more than six months or since its May 6 close of 6,991.87.

Mr. Calaycay noted that the surge of earnings reports last week pushed the aggregates to positive territory, and that the upcoming release of Q3 economic data; positive investment pledges from President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s trip to Malaysia and a probable technical rebound given the magnitude of the market’s slide off its recent peak approaches the 10% mark, could lift the local barometer as the anticipated December US Fed rate hike, meanwhile, “moves back to the uncertain column following Trump’s win.”

Online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com said in its weekly outlook that jitters caused by Mr. Trump’s win may spill over this week, with the Philippines “among those badly hit” and “will likely to remain the least favored until Trump’s plans and policies are clearly articulated.”

The market’s “immediate support is 6,800, secondary at 6,600, and resistance 7,000,” it said.

Looking into Philippine equities more closely, property has been heavily battered on fears that BPOs may pull out and hurt the office leasing revenues of property companies,” read 2TradeAsia.com’s report.

“[O]n top of this BPO issue, there are concerns that remittances from Overseas Filipinos may drop sharply as investors take Trump’s campaign talks like bringing back jobs to the US and prioritizing Americans in job offers at face value. While we find these fears way exaggerated, negative sentiments may still outweigh the strong fundamentals,” it added.

METALS AS HAVEN
2TradeAsia.com noted that “knee-jerk reactions” for now will keep foreign exchange & metal prices volatile in the coming days, with the magnitude dependent on continuity of net foreign funds outflow across the region as fund managers prefer to hold onto cash.

“Mr. Trump’s protectionist policy will lead to increased demand for metals, especially those considered as haven amidst the leadership shift. More earnings results are coming plus GDP. A number of major companies have already reported their [nine months[ results, most were within expectations. More earnings results are coming and should be in-line as well,” 2TradeAsia.com added.

Mr. Trump, a Republican, on Wednesday became the 45th US president, initially sending global stocks into a tailspin before recovering “due to technical rebound” the next day and plunging back to the negative territory at the end of last week as uncertainties over a Trump win have started to set in.

For BPI Asset Management, the local PSEi will continue to track external developments.

“For next week, we expect the PSEi to track international markets again as global investors look for more clarity regarding US president-elect Trump’s policies. Investors will also monitor local developments, especially the release of the third quarter GDP growth figures,” it said in its weekly outlook, expecting the stock market to trade between 6,900 and 7,200 range.

Luis A. Limlingan, business development head at Regina Capital Development Corp., said “the first 1-2 trading days are crucial for PSEi as it will attempt to recover above breakdown point of 7,090.”

“Given the index’s downward trajectory, there is a strong likelihood that we will see corrective reactions to 61.8% (6,849) which may possibly trigger bargain-hunting,” Mr. Limlingan said as “sharp intraday swings will be common sight this week, with bias on the downside.”

“On the other hand, PSEi’s near-oversold readings could initiate a recovery but note that this will be temporary until all technical threats subside — max upside we see this week is 7,300 (260-d MA). As such, we discourage any aggressive buying this week and instead wait for the index to stabilize first and establish a reversal pattern before repositioning. Selling into rallies is a priority, especially for issues currently trading in a downtrend.”

Mr. Limlingan added: “We may see the exodus to continue if we cannot climb back to 7,000 in the first trading days. No preferred sectors but companies which has business tied locally.”

Source: http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=StockMarket&title=caution-pervades-market-on-trump-spillover-fears&id=136259
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We aim to continue promoting financial literacy on the area of stock market trading and investing to our countrymen both here and abroad through the following:

1. The Book: “The Responsible Trader – a Thinking Person’s Guide for Trading the Philippine Stock Market” now earned the name “The Bible of Philippine Trading.” You can download Chapter 1, Section 1 of the book here: http://theresponsibletrader.com/the-responsible-trader-hope-for-trading-knowledge-test/

2. The Website: :http://www.theresponsibletrader.com where we publish our daily newsletter Top Ten Smart Money Moves, Stock Trading Lessons, and Inspirational Materials. (FREE)

3. The YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/theresponsibletrader – where you can learn the course “Master’s Certificate in Technical Analysis” which was simplified in an easily understood manner. You can download these videos and learn them at your own convenient time. (FREE)

4. My Slideshare: http://www.slideshare.net/TheResponsibleTrader – where you can view and download copy of the Powerpoint Presentation of my TRT-POV (The Responsible Trader’s Point of View) of the videos posted in our Youtube Channel. (FREE)

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Good luck on all your TRADES today.

DISCLAIMER There is a very high degree of risk involved in TRADING. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Nothing contained in this newsletter constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, PROMOTION or endorsement of any security. In accordance with the Responsible TRADER’s Creed: I will never tell and you take full responsibility for all your TRADING results

NOTES: Please take note of the following changes effective August 6, 2015: 1. Caption Market Breadth has been changed to Total Traded Value to simplify the presentation. 2. Market Breadth is expressed in terms of Number of Advances and Declines. Expressing this as a Ratio by using the larger number as Numerator we derive the Market Sentiment whether Bullish or Bearish. 3. Based on Past three-year data of Average Total Traded Values, following classifications will be used to make the presentation more relevant to present times. a. Low – Total Traded Value less than P8 Billion b. Medium – Total Traded Value P8 Billion but not more than P15 Billion c. High – Total Traded Value more than P15 Billion